Stay Cautiously Optimistic For Now
A close below the previous day low will negative; Keep strict money management principles in the place to protect the profits and capital
Stay Cautiously Optimistic For Now
The benchmark indices traded subdued on the last day of the financial year. NSE Nifty gained declined by 72.60 points or 0.31 per cent and closed at 23,519.35 points. A majority of sectoral indices closed negative. The FMCG is the top gainer with just 0.59 per cent. The FinNifty, Private bank indices closed with moderate gains. The Media and IT indices are down by over two per cent. The Realty, Auto, Microcap, and Metal indices are down by over one per cent. All other indices closed with less than one per cent loss. The India VIX is down by 4.38 per cent to 12.72. The market breadth is negative as declines and advances. About stocks hit a new 52-week low, and stocks traded in the lower circuit. BSE, HDFC Bank, Reliance, M&M, and Zomato were the top trading counters in terms of value.
The Nifty gained by 1,167.80 points or 5.23 per cent in the financial year. The Nifty gained 6.33 per cent and ended a five-month losing streak. It formed an outside bar on a monthly chart. In the last trading session, the index traded volatile and closed on a negative note. The index erased the previous day’s gains. The Volumes were very thin, recording just half of the previous trading session.
On a weekly chart, the index has formed a Shooting Star Doji candle, also known as a Gravestone Doji candle, which is a negative signal for a trending market. The reason to close positively in the month is that the fund houses and FPIs managed the index during March to sustain the NAVs and Tax harvesting. As the index has formed almost an inside bar, there is no change in directional bias. There are series of event risk scheduled next week onwards including Trump Tariffs, and Annual earnings. Stay cautiously optimistic for now. A close below the previous day low will negative. Keep strict money management principles in the place to protect the profits and capital.
(The author is partner, Wealocity Analytics, Sebi-registered research analyst, chief mentor, Indus School of Technical Analysis, financial journalist, technical analyst and trainer)
